CSIS surveyed thought leaders from 16 nations in Europe and Asia who are influential in the debate on international and/or Asian regional affairs to map their views on U.S. China policy and their own nations’ China policy. The interactive graph below represents how U.S. Allies and Partners answered key questions on national security, economic, and human rights issues. Respondents were asked to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how much risk the United States is prepared to take defend a U.S. ally or partner in the Asia-Pacific if they come under threat from China, as well as how much risk their country should take to advance human rights in China. Respondents were also asked to rate on a scale of 1 to 10 how important is it for their nations to maintain economic cooperation with China in various areas.
Key Takeaways & Analysis
Among thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe, 74% would like the United States to prioritize cooperation with allies and partners even if it harms relations with China, and 56% think their own country should prioritize cooperation with the United States and other allies to balance China on national security.
Thought leaders in Asia and Europe do believe the United States is prepared to take significant risk to defend them against Chinese military threats.
There is strong consensus among thought leaders in Asia and Europe that the United States is prepared to take risk to defend Japan (mean score of 6.89); Taiwan (6.42); South Korea (6.39); and Australia (6.16) against threats from China, but there is less consensus on defending an unnamed ally or partner in the South China Sea (5.43), though Northeast Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) are generally more confident (6.14).
Allies and partners overwhelmingly think the United States would prevail in a conflict with China . . . today.
Overall, 84% of thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe think the United States would prevail in an armed conflict with China in the Western Pacific today, though just 56% think the United States would prevail 10 years from now.
Thought leaders among U.S. allies and partners are equally concerned about Huawei as Americans. More than two-thirds of those surveyed think their country should ban Huawei’s entry into their 5G market, with 30% of those also supporting a ban on trade in telecom components.
There is a consensus among thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe that their own countries should take significant risk to advance human rights in China.
On a scale of 1–10 where "10" means "worth putting other priorities at significant risk," the mean response from U.S. allies and partners overall is 6.23 (6.50 with respect to Hong Kong, 6.19 for Tibet and Xinjiang, and 6.01 for rights of dissidents in China).