Analysis

Allies and Partners want more cooperation with the United States on China.

Among thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe, 74% would like the United States to prioritize cooperation with allies and partners even if it harms relations with China, and 56% think their own country should prioritize cooperation with the United States and other allies to balance China on national security.

Among thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe, 74% would like the United States to prioritize cooperation with allies and partners even if it harms relations with China, and 56% think their own country should prioritize cooperation with the United States and other partners to balance China on national security.

This suggests a healthy basis for working toward calibrated international cooperation and agreements to address challenges from China.

Majority support for prioritizing cooperation with the United States and other allies to balance China on national security still generally tracks with expectations for future regional order documented in a CSIS survey back in 2014. Despite expectations that China will be the most powerful country in Asia, a majority of respondents in that survey predicted continued U.S. leadership in Asia, and a plurality believed that would be in the best interests of their country.

Respondents from Japan show the most robust support for prioritizing cooperation with the United States and other allies to balance China on national security (80%), followed by Germany (79%) and India (76%), where views on China have hardened since the recent crisis along the land border in the Ladakh region. In responses across the board, Japanese views align most closely with those in the U.S. thought leader survey on China policy.

Outliers to this trend are the 66% of respondents from Southeast Asia and majorities in Italy (57%) and the United Kingdom (50%) who respond that they prefer to remain neutral in the growing Sino-U.S. confrontation. This does not mean that these countries would oppose international collaboration but does suggest that Southeast Asia, in particular, will be wary of policies designed to enlist them to pressure China outside of international consensus-based agreements and organizations. The UK results are the most at odds with actual government policy among the respondents in the international survey, reflecting perhaps the ongoing debate among intellectuals in that country about the meaning of a "Global Britain" in the wake of Brexit.

The exceptions in Southeast Asia are the two countries under pressure from China over maritime claims disputes. A majority of respondents from Vietnam (58%) and the Philippines (56%) believe their country should prioritize cooperation with the United States and other allies, which is consistent with a recent CSIS survey of Southeast Asian thought leaders, where these two countries are most negative about China’s role in the region.

Thailand is the only country where a plurality of respondents suggested the United States should prioritize cooperation with China over allies and partners, and all Thai respondents think the best approach for their country to take toward China on national security is to remain neutral. A strong majority of respondents from Malaysia (88%), Singapore (83%), and Indonesia (73%) also favor neutrality. This was not entirely surprising in Indonesia and Malaysia, given the non-alignment traditions in those countries, but it is more striking in Singapore, where the United States has unique access to military facilities through the 2005 U.S.-Singapore Strategic Framework Agreement.

A recent 14-country Pew Research Center public opinion poll indicates negative views of China in Australia, Germany, and several other countries have reached their highest points in over a decade.