AnalysisAllies and partners overwhelmingly think the United States would prevail in a conflict with China . . . today.
Overall, 84% of thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe think the United States would prevail in an armed conflict with China in the Western Pacific today, though just 56% think the United States would prevail 10 years from now.
By the Numbers
- 56%
of thought leaders in Asia and Europe think the U.S. would prevail in an armed conflict with China ten years from today.
- 79%
of German respondents think the U.S. would prevail in an armed conflict with China today, but only 38% think the U.S. would prevail ten years from today.
Overall, 84% of thought leaders surveyed in Asia and Europe think the United States would prevail in an armed conflict with China in the Western Pacific today, though just 56% think the United States would prevail 10 years from now.
This likely reflects the trajectory thought leaders on international affairs around the world see in China’s military buildup, given efforts to develop advanced assets such as aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, stealth aircraft, and hypersonic missiles. Confidence in the United States is also based on strong support for alliances working together, particularly among thought leaders in Asia.
The high level of confidence in the United States in South Korea is positive (98%), but may also explain why Korean governments have felt less necessity to openly work with the United States on the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy or trilateral defense cooperation with Japan, which would incur Beijing’s ire. That said, 74% of Koreans believe their government should work with allies and partners even if it hurts relations with Beijing.
Of Japanese thought leaders, 88% are also confident the United States would prevail in a conflict with China today, and Japanese thought leaders also emphasize the networking dimension to U.S. regional strategy, with 86% suggesting the United States should work with allies in the region and 80% indicating their government should work with the United States. Japanese and South Korean attitudes seem to indicate that the countries most confident in U.S. capabilities are also the ones that conduct actual joint military planning with the United States.
The decline in confidence in the United States when projecting out 10 years from now is most pronounced in Germany (-41%), followed by India (-40%), France (-36%), and Italy (-36%). This could reflect recognition of the threat posed by advances in China’s technological capabilities but also the distance from scenario planning with the U.S. strategic community for contingencies in the Western Pacific. Again, those countries that would be most directly impacted by conflict in the region are most confident in U.S. capabilities, though that confidence wanes with time.