AnalysisThought leaders are divided on why U.S.-China relations have become so adversarial.
When asked to select significant causes of U.S.-China confrontation, the first choice among American thought leaders overall is the Trump administration’s policies (24% of "first choice" responses), followed by China’s assertive military and foreign policy (15%), a power shift that made confrontation inevitable (14%), and Xi Jinping’s authoritarian leadership style (14%).
| First Choice | Second Choice | Third Choice | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Trump Administration's policies | 23.64% | 16.14% | 18.64% |
| China's assertive military and foreign policy | 15.23% | 16.59% | 16.36% |
| A power shift that made confrontation inevitable | 14.32% | 7.05% | 11.36% |
| Xi Jinping's authoritarian leadership style | 13.86% | 17.73% | 12.95% |
| The fundamental ideology of the Communist Party of China | 13.41% | 7.05% | 7.05% |
| China's predatory economic policies and backsliding on market reforms | 11.82% | 19.55% | 12.73% |
| Poor communication and crisis management between the U.S. and Chinese governments | 5% | 10.68% | 11.14% |
| Previous U.S. administrations' failure to stand up to China | 2.73% | 5.23% | 9.77% |
| None of the above | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- <5%
- 5%
- 10%
- >15%
By the Numbers
- 24%
of U.S. thought leaders believe the Trump Administration’s policies are the primary reason for the current U.S.-China confrontation.
- 15%
of U.S. thought leaders believe China's assertive military and foreign policy is the primary reason for the current U.S.-China confrontation.
When asked to select significant causes of U.S.-China confrontation, the first choice among American thought leaders overall is the Trump administration’s policies (24% of "first choice" responses), followed by China’s assertive military and foreign policy (15%), a power shift that made confrontation inevitable (14%), and Xi Jinping’s authoritarian leadership style (14%).
On the other hand, a plurality of human rights leaders identify "the fundamental ideology of the Communist Party of China" as their first choice for the cause of U.S.-China confrontation (27% of first choice responses).
In addition, a plurality of labor and progressive economic leaders identify "China’s predatory economic policies and backsliding on market reforms" as their first choice for the cause of the current confrontation (27% of first choice responses).
A plurality of national security experts cite China’s assertive military and foreign policy as their first choice for the cause of the current U.S.-China confrontation, placing relatively more blame on China than other groups.
While it is not the most popular first choice of economic thought leaders, "China’s predatory economic policies and backsliding on market reforms" is the most popular overall choice for those in the business community (63% of respondents rank it as first, second, or third).
It is noteworthy that leaders in agricultural trade are more likely to blame the Trump administration than China’s policies, reflecting perhaps the damage to their exports from U.S. tariffs on China.