AnalysisAmericans think conflict with China is possible but unlikely.
Overall, 60% of the U.S. public thinks a major U.S.-China military conflict is possible but not likely; 26% believe that conflict is likely; and 11% think it is inevitable.
By the Numbers
- 60%
of the U.S. public thinks a major U.S.-China military conflict is possible but not likely.
- 50%
of respondents age 18-30 think a major U.S.-China military conflict is likely.
Overall, 60% of the U.S. public thinks a major U.S.-China military conflict is possible but not likely; 26% believe that conflict is likely; and 11% think it is inevitable.
Despite frequent references in the media to the "Thucydides Trap" and the growing risk of war between the United States and China, most of the U.S. public does not think conflict is likely. On the whole, the public is more pessimistic about the possibility of conflict with China than are U.S. thought leaders (1% of thought leaders say inevitable, 15% of thought leaders say likely, 83% of thought leaders say possible, but not likely).
Only in the 18–30 age group do the majority of respondents (50%) think that conflict with China is likely. This could reflect expectations for greater Chinese power projection in the future that could increase the potential for conflict and may also explain that demographic group’s lower enthusiasm for defending allies and partners. The relative calm among older Americans may reflect more experience with crises involving China that have been resolved peacefully (such as the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis or 2001 Hainan Island incident).